Ukraine and the Markets — update 2/14
Listen to the podcast https://anchor.fm/dailystockpick/episodes/Will-a-Ukraine-invasion-crash-the-market--Market-update-2-14-22-e1ecf4o
$ORCL — Oracle
I like this one as an opportunity, but maybe not just yet. They have been the biggest buyer of shares recently and with earnings coming up on March 9, it could present itself. Right now you’re about to have the 50 day (blue) cross the 200 day (red) which is a death cross. You’re seeing a volume shelf forming around here, but I think you may be consolidating. I’ll keep an eye on it, but not entering just yet because of market risk.
$CLF — Cleveland Cliffs
I’m uncertain of how this chart looks, but the algo still has us in. The MacD looks like it’s going to cross under and we’ve gone from completely overbought at earnings to just even on the RSI. I think if you’re in, you can stay in, but I’m out. I don’t expect any catalyst to this name in the near term since they pointed out on earnings that costs were a drag.
$SQ — Square (or Block)
This may seem interesting since it’s 52 week high is $289 just in August. But with Apple releasing the touch to pay application in IOS now, this company may not justify the multiple P/E of 113 right now. The growth and guidance on the earnings call (FEb 24th) may be lower based on that. The trend on every moving average is lower and as Trading Rush has taught me — don’t fight a trend. I would stay away even though it’s tempting.
$SKT — Tanger Outlets
Earnings is coming up on Feb 17 (Thursday). We just had a buy on the algo at $16.57. The trend is down, but this may be an interesting one to play in to earnings with the MacD trending up. The RSI scares me because it’s not overbought or oversold, but the 200 day still seems to be going flat. The death cross just happened so I would maybe play lightly on this one.
$NVDA — NVDIA
I like this daily chart. The MacD just crossed, the RSI shows oversold and the 200 day is still upward trending. The 50 day is playing resistance and it just filled the gap made. I worry about rising interest rates with a PE of 73, but I’m going to start a position in this one soon. I may have missed the under $240 price (it’s trading at $245 as I write this), but I’ll probably put an order of $235 in and fill 10% of my hopeful position. Going in to earnings this week, they should have some positive news based on AMD and Qualcomm results. I view this as an investment and not a trade though. Listen to the podcast where I explain the difference.
$ROKU — Roku
This is a daily chart of Roku and as they head in to earnings the trend is down. I believe the 50 day will provide resistance even on an earnings beat. I think the upside is limited in this, but if you look at the volume shelf for the last time it traded at this level, the majority of people are in the red on this investment. The MacD is crossing up and the RSI is rising so gamble on this if you want. I didn’t mention it on the podcast, but I think $TTD might be a better risk/reward opportunity.
$FB — Facebook (aka Meta)
I like this stock as an investment. With a growth stock moving to a value stock with a PE around 15 right now, I think this is an opportunity to start a position in this. The last time it was trading at this level was May 2020. Facebook usage, advertising and their forward guidance is not back to the levels they were at then. I think this is an over reaction and it’s a good opportunity to get in. I think anything under $220 you’re going to be happy in 5–7 years. Again — it’s an investment — not a trade. Full disclosure — I’m not a fan of FB at all. I like using Instagram, but I barely use FB these days. The people I know who do use it regularly are crazy, but small businesses still realize it’s an important and vital tool to them. That didn’t stop overnight.
